Fishing for a trusty poll: New NOM/MFI one won't reel in many

Unlike her friends at Cornerstone Policy Research, the National Organization for Marriage's Maggie Gallagher isn't touting the ridiculous, easily debunkable claim that she surveyed an entire state in two days.  However, in a skewed poll that Mags has created with her friends at the Massachusetts Family Institute, she is engaging in her own manipulation in order to support the contention that "five years after same-sex couples first began to enter legal marriages in Massachusetts...Massachusetts voters remain sharply divided about gay marriage."

First off: Here's the poll and associated NOM press release.  If you want to have a look before we start ranting about it, then go do so now.  We'll wait.

Okay, you back?  Cool.  So how is this new NOM/MFI poll skewed?  Well...

- For starters, they only surveyed 306 people out of the 6,497,967 estimated Massachusetts residents.  If the New Hampshire numbers were laughably high, then this 306 figure is brow-furrowingly low.  Perhaps not enough for a total invalidation, but certainly enough for increased skepticism.

- Also, the poll was conducted by QEV Analytics, a research firm with deep conservative ties.  Among the successes that the firm's president, Steven Wagner, touts in his QEV bio?  Well, that "he conducted much of the research behind the GOP 'Contract with America' during the 1994 campaign," that "he has surveyed various congressional districts across the country for Republican candidates," that he was was the "founding Executive Director of the Campaign for Prosperity, Jack Kemp's political action committee," and that he served a stint as "the Political Director of the National Republican Institute for International Affairs."  Now, of course right-leanings don't automatically indicate deception.  But when a same-sex marriage poll comes from a firm whose owner politically and financially supported the campaigns of such staunch marriage equality foes as Mike Huckabee and Same Brownback, objectivity is not the first concept that comes to mind.

- Then there are the questions themselves.  Here, look at how some of them are phrased: 

5. “People who believe that marriage can only be between a man and a woman are engaging in discrimination, just like those who opposed interracial marriage.” Do you agree or disagree with that statement? Do you feel that way strongly or not strongly?

6. Here’s the next statement: “People should be free to practice their beliefs, even if it means they will not treat same-sex couples the same as other married couples.” Do you agree or disagree with that statement? Do you feel that way strongly or not strongly?

7. Here’s the next statement: “People who think marriage is only between a man and a woman SHOULD feel intimidated, because they are engaging in discrimination, and no one should feel free to be for discrimination.” Do you agree or disagree with that statement? Do you feel that way strongly or not strongly?

8. And here’s the next statement: “Some people I know personally would be reluctant to admit they oppose gay marriage because they would worry about the consequences for them or their children.”

See the odd and confusing wording?  Almost every one could be answered with two minds.  Heck, even though most our readers are like the more liberal on gay rights issues than the love child of George Soros and Gloria Steinem, we'd be likely to bet that many of you out there on the other side of the computer screen see how one could give NOM/MFI the answer they are seeking.  For instance: Many of us know that it's possible to support marriage equality but not directly compaer it to interracial marrige.  For another: Many of us who sand against discrimination stop short of "intimidation," while others might be confused as to what, exactly, the poll taker means by the term.  And in terms of knowing someone who is reluctant to admit gay bias -- well who among us doesn't know someone like that?  Knowing someone who feels that way doesn;t mean that their feeliing is justified!

So yea, like so many polls (on both sides, actually), the questions are muddy and weighted.  And then there's the primary question, which comes after respondents have made their way through the confusing mire:

9. Do you personally favor or oppose same-sex marriage generally?

43% FAVOR
44% OPPOSE
14% DON'T KNOW/NO RESPONSE

Okay for starters: Since there's a 5.7 margin of error, this is a pretty positive number to begin with.  Considering all that gays have faced, 43% (give or take) wouldn't be so bad, even in blue Mass. 

However, to accurately look at this number, you can't just look at the first two figures and the margin of error (which is mainly what NOM has touted).  What you really have to look at here is the sizable "no response" field.  Because think, for a second, about what that sort of response means in terms of this question.  Those who either oppose or support marriage equality tend to have firm opinions, so it's most likely that the "don't know/no response" folks are largely in the "couldn't care less" camp.  And it is more than reasonable to assume that the vast majority of this camp breaks toward the "live and let live" side of life, which doesn't typically go against LGBT equality. So even with all of the poll's flaws, we would suggest that this questions shows that a majority of Massachusetts would absolutely be on our side if our rights were put to a test (which they thankfully won't be anytime soon in the Bay State).  And moreover, we would suggest that when combined with factors like an aging population and increased gains in surrounding states, this number, even if accepted at face value, shows little hope for the professionally anti-gay among us.

So there ya have it -- There's the new NOM/MFI shell game in a nutshell.  If we get bored later today, maybe we'll overanalyze Pinocchio's nose and feign surprise when it continues to grow.

FIVE YEARS AFTER GOODRIDGE: GAY MARRIAGE DIVIDES MASSACHUSETTS VOTERS [NOM]